Using 2022 school census figures from the Universal Basic Education Commission (UBEC) alongside population estimates for children aged 6–14, we calculated each state’s public-school share — the percentage of that age group enrolled in a public primary or junior secondary school. The result is presented below, but first some editorialising.
The national picture of enrolment is quite uneven. At the top, Akwa Ibom records a public-school share of 149%, showing that there are more enrolled pupils in basic education than the number of school-age children projected by the National Population Commission (NPC) for the state. Kaduna (119%) and Oyo (107%) also exceed 100%. It’s possible that the NPC has underestimated the population of these states, or the states might be enrolling older children in their attempt to ensure no child is left behind. Even when we discount for possible data issues like this, these states would still retain a high public school enrolment rate, and for that they deserve some credit for their achievement.
At the other end, states like Cross River (17%), Bayelsa (21%), and Ekiti (22%) record very low shares. Fifteen other states record less than 50%. What does this mean? These are states that rely heavily on private schools, a situation that should concern their policymakers and public education managers. Some, of course, also grapple with a high rate of out-of-school children population.
Public schools are the backbone of mass education, they are where most children from low-income households learn to read, to count, and to imagine a future. Where the public system fails, private alternatives fill the gap unevenly and often at a cost that excludes the poorest families entirely. Today, Nigeria’s public basic schools account for only 54% of all children that should be receiving their basic education. In much of the world, public school as share of children population exceed 80%, and that’s the level we should aim for. We have a long way to go.
| State | Public School Share | Estimated Population (Age 6–14) | Public Pry and JSS (2022) |
| Akwa Ibom | 149.36% | 1,020,453 | 1,524,175 |
| Kaduna | 118.88% | 1,906,457 | 2,266,482 |
| Oyo | 106.79% | 1,816,786 | 1,940,173 |
| Katsina | 101.76% | 2,738,433 | 2,786,659 |
| Imo | 98.10% | 1,293,194 | 1,268,578 |
| Kano | 86.83% | 3,973,834 | 3,450,325 |
| Yobe | 78.42% | 947,138 | 742,729 |
| Taraba | 77.60% | 880,675 | 683,390 |
| Adamawa | 67.16% | 1,181,604 | 793,603 |
| Gombe | 64.81% | 1,023,342 | 663,250 |
| Borno | 60.00% | 1,388,858 | 833,270 |
| Kebbi | 57.12% | 1,382,944 | 789,873 |
| Jigawa | 56.30% | 1,979,080 | 1,114,135 |
| Sokoto | 55.23% | 1,757,889 | 970,943 |
| Nasarawa | 55.08% | 633,210 | 348,780 |
| Bauchi | 53.96% | 2,306,265 | 1,244,526 |
| FCT | 53.43% | 632,658 | 338,059 |
| Niger | 52.55% | 1,731,151 | 909,768 |
| Plateau | 52.19% | 1,070,326 | 558,553 |
| Ondo | 45.06% | 1,246,569 | 561,646 |
| Zamfara | 42.50% | 1,652,750 | 702,430 |
| Ebonyi | 41.84% | 729,788 | 305,366 |
| Kwara | 40.69% | 783,784 | 318,933 |
| Delta | 38.16% | 1,184,690 | 452,084 |
| Edo | 37.05% | 1,058,480 | 392,172 |
| Ogun | 36.59% | 1,580,200 | 578,198 |
| Benue | 33.56% | 1,433,666 | 481,108 |
| Kogi | 32.20% | 843,830 | 271,744 |
| Osun | 31.62% | 936,601 | 296,172 |
| Rivers | 27.67% | 1,541,196 | 426,472 |
| Abia | 26.98% | 894,134 | 241,230 |
| Enugu | 24.66% | 1,033,550 | 254,922 |
| Lagos | 22.86% | 2,907,440 | 664,688 |
| Anambra | 22.80% | 1,329,926 | 303,289 |
| Ekiti | 21.53% | 816,025 | 175,730 |
| Bayelsa | 20.96% | 589,428 | 123,548 |
| Cross River | 17.30% | 1,101,120 | 190,539 |